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From NBC's Mark Murray
McCain media consultant Mark McKinnon has told many in the press, including First Read, that he would no longer work for McCain if Obama becomes the Democratic nominee.
McKinnon, a former Democrat who was an integral member of George W. Bush's two successful presidential bids, has reconfirmed that pledge to the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza. "'I'll be transitioning, shifting position from linebacker to head cheerleader,' said the always-colorful McKinnon. He added that he would continued to be a 'friend and fan' to the campaign."
"'I just don't want to work against an Obama candidacy,' McKinnon told Cox Washington bureau chief Ken Herman [last summer]; electing Obama, he added, 'would send a great message to the country and the world.' McKinnon said at the time he would vote for McCain."
More from Cillizza: "The task of creating the ads and media strategy for the campaign will now fall to a trio of consultants -- Fred Davis, Chris Mottola and Mike Hudome -- known collectively as Foxhole Media. Hudome will be heading up the effort."
From NBC's Mark Murray
The breaking news from the AP: "Sen. Edward M. Kennedy say he has a malignant
brain tumor. Doctors for the Massachusetts Democrat say tests conducted after Kennedy suffered a seizure this weekend show a tumor in his left parietal lobe. His treatment will be decided after more tests but the usual course includes combinations of radiation and
chemotherapy."
VIDEO: NBC's Robert Bazell discusses Sen. Kennedy's condition.
*** UPDATE *** Here is the statement from from Dr. Lee Schwamm, vice chairman, Department of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, and Dr. Larry Ronan, primary care physician, Massachusetts General Hospital: "Over the course of the last several days, we've done a series of tests on Senator Kennedy to determine the cause of his seizure. He has had no further seizures, remains in good overall condition, and is up and walking around the hospital. Some of the tests we had performed were inconclusive, particularly in light of the fact that the senator had severe narrowing of the left carotid artery and underwent surgery just 6 months ago. However, preliminary results from a biopsy of the brain identified the cause of the seizure as a malignant glioma in the left parietal lobe. The usual course of treatment includes combinations of various forms of radiation and chemotherapy. Decisions regarding the best course of treatment for Sen. Kennedy will be determined after further testing and analysis. Sen. Kennedy will remain at Massachusetts General Hospital for the next couple of days according to routine protocol. He remains in good spirits and full of energy."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Everyone’s a winner: Much like a children’s soccer or Tee Ball game, tonight’s contests in Kentucky (which Clinton is expected to win big) and Oregon (ditto for Obama) are going to allow everyone to walk out a winner. And that’s especially good news for Obama, because the party’s presumptive nominee is going to lose a race by 20-plus points for a second-straight week. But the bigger prize for Obama tonight is what he's claiming at an event in Iowa -- where it all began for him -- that he has earned a majority of the pledged delegates won in the Democratic contests. Per NBC’s delegate count, he needs to pick up just 25 to achieve this (not counting some Edwards delegates, which the Obama campaign has already added in to their totals). Yet as the Clinton campaign has pointed out, the milestone is only a symbolic one, but it’s still likely to be the dominant storyline tonight. By the way, if Obama picks up approximately 50 delegates tonight, then he'll clinch a majority of the pledged delegates even if you add in Michigan and Florida as they originally voted.
*** The basics: There are a combined 103 pledged delegates at stake in the two contests (51 for Kentucky, 52 for Oregon); to put that into perspective, North Carolina alone awarded 115 delegates. Most polls in Kentucky open at 6:00 am ET and close at 6:00 pm ET, although in the part of the state in the Central Time Zone, polls close at 7:00 pm ET. Oregon, meanwhile, conducts its contests by mail. In most parts of the state, ballots must be received by 11:00 pm ET, and they can be mailed in or dropped off. Per the Oregon Secretary of State Elections Division, nearly 728,000 ballots (about 36% of the vote) have been received by May 18.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on today's Kentucky and Oregon primaries and provides an overview of the changing delegate math.
***
Where we stand: Obama leads in pledged delegates per the NBC hard count (1,602 to 1,444), superdelegates (303.5 to 279.5), overall delegates (1905.5 to 1723.5), the popular vote (16,157,639 to 15,583,020), and the total number of contests won (31 to 17). Note: We’re not including Texas in this contest count, given that Clinton won the primary but Obama won the caucus and netted the most total Texas delegates. A bit more on the popular vote... Without adding Florida and Michigan, as noted above, Obama leads by 574,619 votes. Adding Florida to the mix, he leads by 279,847 (16,733,853 to 16,454,006). And adding Michigan but not “uncommitted,” Clinton leads by 48,462 (16,782,315 to 16,733,853). But do note that the “uncommitted” vote was 238,168.
*** It’s the demographics, stupid: Besides the public polls, how do we know that Clinton is poised for victory in Kentucky, while Obama is sitting pretty in Oregon? According to Democratic politico Mike Berman, Obama has dominated the states with the largest or smallest black populations, while Clinton fares MUCH better in the states in between. Berman writes in his Washington Political Watch that Obama “has won 12 of the 15 contests in which the African-American population is less than 4%, and 10 of the 11 contests in which the African-American population is greater than 16%. In those 18 states where the population ranges from 4%-16%, Obama won 8, while Clinton won 11.” The African-American population for Kentucky? 7.3% For Oregon? 1.6%. As one Republican politico told us, these aren't primaries anymore; they’re census surveys.
*** Florida, Florida, Florida: In Miami today, McCain gives a speech marking Cuba independence day, and he'll use it to hit Obama on his Cuba policy. That will play well to older Cubans, but Obama's Cuba stance does play better with younger Cubans, who don't have the negative memories of their parents and grandparents. Obama heads to the state tomorrow with -- of all people -- Clinton in tow. She seemed to add her own Florida trip at the last minute. To some, it looks like an attempt to follow Obama so she can stay in the news. The big hurdle Clinton faces after tonight: There will be nearly two weeks without a primary and with an opponent not paying attention to her anymore. It's going to get harder and harder to stay relevant in the daily news cycles, particularly as Obama and McCain take dead aim at each other.
*** What have you missed… : We continue our series this week on important political moments you may have missed while knee-deep in the presidential contest. Today, we have one word for you: retirements. In both the House and Senate, Democrats are virtually assured of making gains even if McCain wins the presidency because so many House and Senate Republicans have chosen retirement. This fall, according to the Cook Political Report, Senate Republicans are going to have to defend at least five open Senate seats (in Colorado, Idaho, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Virginia), compared with zero for the Democrats. In the House, there have been 25 GOP retirements versus seven for the Democrats. And you can now add one more retirement to the House GOP list. The AP is reporting that embattled New York Rep. Vito Fossella won’t seek reelection. “This choice,” he said in a statement, “was an extremely difficult one, balanced between my dedication to service to our great nation and the need to concentrate on healing the wounds that I have caused to my wife and family.”
*** Don’t forget: By midnight tonight, the campaigns are supposed to file their April fundraising numbers with the FEC. Clinton campaign co-chair Terry McAuliffe told MSNBC’s Norah O’Donnell that Clinton’s haul would be more than $10 million -- in fact, he said it would be the Clinton campaign’s third-biggest month. According to that hint, that would place her haul somewhere between the $14 million she raised in January and the $20 million she secured in March; her biggest haul was $35 million in February. Remember, by the way, this is the fundraising report that will include the $10 million the campaign claims to have raised in the initial 24 hours after the Pennsylvania victory.
*** Down the ballot: There are some interesting House and Senate primaries in Kentucky and Oregon today. The DSCC has a little something on the line, as both of its preferred candidates in Kentucky (Lunsford) and Oregon (Merkley) are struggling to win their nominations. Lunsford should hang on, but Merkley's another story. His foe, Steve Novick, seems to be benefiting from the increased turnout of new voters created by Obama's candidacy. Does anything north of 12 points for Obama mean a Novick victory? Astoundingly, the DSCC has spent some $300,000 on Merkley's behalf, so losing would be a real embarrassment to Chuck Schumer. It's going to be a nail-biter.
*** On the trail: Clinton, along with her husband, holds her election night event in Louisville, KY former president Bill Clinton joins her; McCain, in Florida, speaks in Miami and then raises money in Ft. Lauderdale; and Obama has his election night event in Des Moines, IA.
Countdown to Puerto Rico: 12 days
Countdown to Montana, South Dakota: 14 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 168 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 245 days
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The New York Times calls tonight -- when Obama will have won a majority of the pledged delegates -- a milestone for the Illinois senator. "For Mr. Obama, the situation is delicate. While eager to proceed to a general election match with Senator John McCain of Arizona, the likely Republican nominee, Mr. Obama is also trying to bring the contest to a close in a way that allows him to win over Mrs. Clinton’s supporters and unify the party. For her part, Mrs. Clinton is making a counterargument that she is winning the popular vote if Florida and Michigan are counted, and that the party’s leaders should take that into consideration before deciding which candidate to support.”
“The results from the Kentucky and Oregon primaries on Tuesday will almost certainly allow Mr. Obama to reach a threshold that his campaign has long sought to establish as the critical measure of the will of the party: winning a majority of the delegates awarded in primaries and caucuses. He also continues to gather support from the party leaders known as superdelegates that he still needs to secure the nomination, picking up five more endorsements on Monday."
The LA Times also says tonight is a "milestone." "To mark the moment, Obama will appear at a rally tonight not in one of the primary states, but in Iowa -- the state whose January caucuses brought Obama a win that galvanized his campaign. The choreographed setting is meant to suggest the near- inevitability of Obama's nomination, without claiming an outright triumph that would offend Clinton loyalists whose support is needed in November."
The Washington Post's Balz notes that whatever either side is saying, one thing's for sure: Both have declared an "effective cease-fire." As for Clinton, "while she presses forward, aides say she is determined neither to be pushed from the race prematurely nor to be seen as doing anything to damage Obama's prospects of winning in November if he emerges as the nominee. Her campaign team believes that is the best way to bring the party together as quickly as possible once the nomination contest is over.”
CONTINUED >>
It's so clear the McCain campaign -- or maybe it's even McCain himself -- hates the idea of ceding the reform issue to Obama, hence the strict lobbyist ban. But has McCain painted himself in a corner? Will Charlie Black and Rick Davis, in particular, find themselves constantly having to be on the defensive because of this? Again, this is self-inflicted, yet noble.
The New York Times notes McCain is finding a "thorny path" on this issue. "McCain’s political identity has long been defined by his calls for reducing the influence of special interests in Washington. But as he heads toward the general election as the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, he has increasingly confronted criticism that his campaign staff is stocked with people who have made their living as lobbyists or in similar jobs, leaving his credentials as a reformer open to attack. The process of trying to purge the campaign of conflicts that in appearance or reality might violate Mr. McCain’s stated principles or cause him political trouble has so far focused only more attention on the backgrounds of his aides and advisers.”
“The delicate task of writing and enforcing the new conflict-of-interest policy has fallen to Mr. McCain’s campaign manager, Rick Davis, who was himself a lobbyist until he took a leave of absence from his firm, Davis Manafort, two years ago."
The paper also notes a slew of potential senior staffers who may have conflicts. "Wayne Berman, the campaign’s deputy finance chairman, has lobbied for the governments of Cyprus and Trinidad and Tobago, along with many other corporate clients. Christian Ferry, who is a lobbyist for Mr. Davis’s firm, is Mr. McCain’s deputy campaign manager. Susan Nelson, the finance director of the campaign, was as recently as last year a registered lobbyist for the Loeffler Group, for companies, including AT&T that have had business before Mr. McCain on the Commerce Committee. John Green, who has been reported to be coordinating the campaign’s efforts with congressional Republicans, is registered as a lobbyist for Ogilvy Government Relations, Mr. Berman’s firm. Carlos Bonilla, described by the McCain Web site as an economic adviser, is also a registered lobbyist."
CONTINUED >>
Has Clinton become Al Gore? She found her voice too late? Still, the fact remains: Clinton has re-made her image and created a distinctive brand from her husband. Frankly, she has accomplished a lot, it's just come a bit too late, just like Al Gore. (It also came with a favorable post-February primary calendar.) Maybe, Hillary and Gore have a lot more in common than they realize; it takes years, not months, to grow out of Bill's shadow.
The Washington Post's Romano writes: "No one is quite sure when Clinton hit her stride, when she stopped caring about the polls, when she took her campaign to the people and gave voters a window into her soul. She said she found her voice in New Hampshire, but then all we heard was Bill's. Some say it was when senior strategist Mark Penn was forced to leave the campaign; he did not put a premium on the personal side of politics. Or it could have simply been when she was losing and so had nothing to lose by being herself.”
“‘The irony is that candidates often find their voices once the pressure is off,’ said Peter D. Hart, a Democratic pollster and strategist. They are comfortable with ‘who they are and what they are. It comes at a point in the campaign when the candidate says this is what I want to say and this is who I am. For Hillary Clinton, as you stripped away all the varnish, the core person is the most attractive of all.’”
The New York Times’ Nagourney, in a fascinating online look at individual dominoes in the Clinton collapse, pulls back the curtain on the Drudge effect: “In October, The New York Times published an article examining the relationship between Mrs. Clinton and the Drudge Report. The article related how the Drudge Report, which historically had tormented the Clintons, had begun routinely posting items boosting Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, at the prompting of an intermediary between Mrs. Clinton’s campaign and the Web site. For the Clinton campaign, things changed almost overnight after that: The Drudge Report returned to being a vehicle driving negative stories about Mrs. Clinton, bad news about the Clinton campaign got extensive attention, and Mrs. Clinton’s war room spent many hours trying to tamp down rumors and suspect information being trumpeted on the site.”
Early this afternoon at the left-leaning Center for American Progress, Biden will give yet another speech criticizing McCain on foreign policy.
The Washington Post's Kurtz profiles Mark Salter and Steve Schmidt in their roles as rapid-responders against the press. "While McCain enjoys an image as a media darling, based largely on his bantering relationship with reporters on his bus, he and his presidential campaign aides have been hitting back hard against high-profile news reports they regard as inaccurate or unfair. The result is a more contentious relationship between the presumed Republican nominee and major news organizations than is publicly apparent. ‘If stories are wrong, we have an absolute obligation to say so, and to say so as loudly as we can,’ said Mark Salter, McCain's longtime confidant, who writes the rebuttal letters. ‘It's not working the refs. It's just correcting things when the refs blow a call.’”
Per excerpts of the speech he will give in Miami today, McCain goes after Obama on the issue of Cuba. “Just a few years ago, Senator Obama had a very clear view on Cuba,” the Arizona senator is expected to say. “When asked in a questionnaire about his policy toward Cuba, he answered: ‘I believe that normalization of relations with Cuba would help the oppressed and poverty-stricken Cuban people while setting the stage for a more democratic government once Castro inevitably leaves the scene.’ Now Senator Obama has shifted positions and says he only favors easing the embargo, not lifting it. He also wants to sit down unconditionally for a presidential meeting with Raul Castro.”
“These steps would send the worst possible signal to Cuba’s dictators -- there is no need to undertake fundamental reforms, they can simply wait for a unilateral change in US policy. I believe we should give hope to the Cuban people, not to the Castro regime. My administration will press the Cuban regime to release all political prisoners unconditionally, to legalize all political parties, labor unions, and free media, and to schedule internationally monitored elections. The embargo must stay in place until these basic elements of democratic society are met.”
In an effort to pre-but McCain’s speech, the Florida Democratic Party held a conference call yesterday afternoon to discuss what it said was McCain’s ever-evolving record on Cuba, NBC's Caroline Gransee reports. Leading the call was congressional candidate Joe Garcia, who began by pointing out that McCain has taken an “interesting departure” from his previous stance on Cuba. In 2000, he said, McCain use to support family travel to Cuba but now opposes it. Garcia believes this change shows McCain’s “expediency for election.”
Garcia also argued that if McCain becomes president, the US would inherit a “third term of George Bush” and his foreign policy toward Cuba -- a policy that has been “inefficient” and “immoral, Garcia said.
The Boston Globe’s Canellos: “Obama may still be proposing policies that strike conservatives as weak and foolish. But after his aggressive response to President Bush's apparent criticisms of his foreign policies last week, it's clear that he's doing so in a forceful and politically savvy way.”
More: “Obama is trying to argue for a kind of muscular liberalism - that by being more open to the world, and more credible as a negotiating partner, the United States can achieve greater safety and security. It's an inherently tough argument to sell. Voters draw comfort from the idea that military strength can guarantee safety; they can't be too eager to have Obama disabuse them of the notion. But in arguing his case for quiet diplomacy, Obama seems to be having his best success when he makes it loudly and strongly.”
Patti Solis Doyle “has had ‘informal’ talks with Sen. Barack Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod, about joining the campaign for the general election. ‘Patti is someone who I've known for 20 years,’ Axelrod told The Post, noting their connections go back to the Chicago political scene in which they began. He said he thinks ‘highly of her, she's from here, we know her well. She's got a lot of great attributes. She's a great friend of mine and I've talked to her throughout the campaign,’ he added. ‘All she's said is, 'If he's the nominee I'd be happy to [help]' ... it's not like there's been offers proffered or positions created. It's not even close.’ Axelrod told The Post the ‘whole thing is overblown.’
CONTINUED >>
“[I]n the wake of his DWI bust and revelations about his long-term extramarital affair with a woman who bore his child,” New York Rep. Vito Fossella will not seek reelection, the New York Post reports. The Post dubs him Vito “Finito” because of it. "He is not resigning, but he's not running again,” a source told the paper. Fossella is expected to make it official today. “[I]n a statement released to the Staten Island Advance last night, Fossella said he'd decided to ‘concentrate on healing the wounds that I have caused to my wife and family... . I believe this course of action is best for my family and our community.’”
Will DSCC chairman Chuck Schumer’s winning streak in endorsing in contested primaries continue in Kentucky and Oregon today?
Also, the GOP race for one of their few open seat opportunities in the House (Oregon's 5th CD) is pretty nasty.
And more on Kentucky's downballot races:
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
BILLINGS, MT -- Obama responded to McCain's criticism of recent comments the Illinois senator made about Iran, linking the presumptive GOP nominee to what he called the failed policies of George Bush.
Obama said both Republicans' stance that Iran must meet a list of preconditions before engaging with them directly was "naïve, wishful thinking."
He also hit McCain hard on his ties to lobbyists, portraying him as someone who does not understand that lobbyists play a negative role in Washington politics.
In a speech in Chicago this morning, McCain said Obama had downplayed the threat posed by Iran when the Democrats said yesterday in Oregon that Iran spends much less on its military and would not stand a chance against the United States in the instance of a conflict -- and that America should be open to negotiating with the country from its position of strength.
McCain said Iran produced the deadliest explosive devices used in Iraq to kill American soldiers, supported terrorist groups, was bent on Israel's destruction, and was intent on acquiring nuclear weapons. The Arizona senator also argued that meeting with Iran's president without preconditions would legitimize a dangerous leader on the world stage.
Obama hit back hard. "John McCain, he’s said, ‘Oh, Obama doesn’t understand the threat of Iran.’ I understand the threat of Iran. But what I know is that the Soviet Union had the ability to destroy the world several times over, had satellites spanning the globe, had huge masses of conventional military power -- all directed at destroying us."
Obama went on to talk about the threats Iran poses, citing many of the same points McCain has. He argued the "Bush-McCain policy of fighting an endless war in Iraq and refusing to pursue direct diplomacy with Iran" was to blame for Iran's strengthened position and suggested McCain wanted to double down on Bush's policy rather than dealing with threats like nuclear proliferation.
"John McCain is right that the greatest threat we face is a terrorist with a nuclear weapon -- that’s why when he was busy supporting a war against a country that had no nuclear weapons, I was busy in the Senate working with Republican Dick Lugar to pass legislation to secure loose nuclear weapons and loose nuclear materials around the world!"
CONTINUED >>
